The meal might be fattening, but the cost of Thanksgiving dinner has slimmed down for the first time in five years.

Economists, however, are split over whether the recession will curb food inflation in 2010.

Falling prices for key food items such as milk, cheese and even turkey pushed the price of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 to $42.91, which is $1.70 cheaper than the 2008 eight price. Cost estimates are based on shopping basket surveys conducted at communities across the country by the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The Farm Bureau’s classic turkey dinner menu includes cranberries, stuffing, buttered rolls, peas, a relish tray, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, turkey and some milk and coffee to wash it down.

Milk prices contributed significantly to the lower costs. Dairy prices in general are down 6 to 7 percent from what they were in 2008, according to October food price numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. Eggs are selling for 16 percent less than they did in 2008. Prices for fresh produce are down 1 to 2 percent.

The falling prices were a welcome break for consumers faced with pay freezes, lost jobs and personal debt. Home food prices in 2008 are up 6.4 percent and 4.2 the year before.

Federal economists are predicting that grocery costs will begin climbing again in 2010, as much as 4.4 percent for restaurants and 3.5 percent at home.

Other economists say grocers aren’t going to raise prices beyond what customers are willing to pay, which right now isn’t much.

“People are showing a willingness to keep money back, keep debt down,” said Jim Sartwelle, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. “We just don’t think when finally someone has a bit more money in the bank they’re going to break this ‘I don’t want to go into debt’ habit and go back to the store.”

Economists forecasting increased food prices are looking at how the United States emerged from the recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s when food prices shot up, Sartwelle said. But, coming out of that recession, Americans had light debt loads and credit cards with clean slates to use when cash on hand wasn’t enough. This time, with bills piling up and credit cards maxed out, Americans are likely to leave expensive foods on the shelf, Sartwelle said.

Scott Rickert, an economist at Montana State University Billings, said he doesn’t see Americans as being willing to pay more for food, not with wages flat and credit access tight. There’s always a couple of food items bucking the trend, but overall food prices are not trending upward.

Sartwelle said he would change his forecast if the price of oil again crept above $100 a barrel, though the increase would be more of a pass-through to customers than a payment increase to farmers, many of whom operated at a loss in 2009. Nothing will change until Americans feel like spending.

“You have to have money in your pocket and you have to feel safe enough to spend it,” Sartwelle said.