HELENA - State general fund tax collections for the fiscal year ending Tuesday are less than what lawmakers projected, but it's too early to say by how much, the Legislature's chief revenue forecaster said Wednesday.

As of June 30, total general-fund tax collections for fiscal 2009 are nearly $298.7 million below last year's total - a 15.3 percent drop, said Terry Johnson, a principal legislative fiscal analyst.

The 2009 Legislature had estimated that these revenues would fall by $108.9 million, or 5.6 percent, he said. That came after the Legislature chopped a committees' original revenue estimates for fiscal 2009, 2010 and 2011 by nearly $293 million during the session.

Johnson said the final tax collection totals for 2009 won't be available until late July when all the year-end adjustments by state agencies, which are called accruals, are completed.

Lawmakers on the Legislature's Revenue and Transportation Interim Committee asked Johnson to send them a quick report as soon as he gets the final numbers.

To put it in perspective, the 2009 Legislature estimated state tax collections and the fiscal impact of enacted bills at $1.8 billion for the fiscal year that ended Tuesday.

Actual numbers for fiscal 2009 and projected revenue numbers for the next two years are important, because if they plunge to a level deemed risky, Gov. Brian Schweitzer can call legislators into special session to cut budgets, raise taxes or both. Lawmakers can also call themselves into special session, but that's rarely done.

The 2009 Legislature left town with a projected general-fund surplus of $300 million by mid-2011, with the expectation that it could absorb some plunging revenues.

Johnson said the Legislative Fiscal Division warned during the legislative session that "a prolonged period of negative growth into the 2011 biennium could potentially reduce the general-fund balance to a level that is unacceptable by the Legislature."

"While the outlook for most revenue categories has not changed materially since the regular legislative session, the overall trend for general-fund revenues for fiscal year 2009 may be showing signs of further weakness," Johnson said in a report.

He expressed concerns over the trends for the last two quarters of fiscal 2009 - from the January through June 2009 - in individual income estimated tax payments. They fell by 14.3 percent from January through March and by 33.6 percent from April through June.

Likewise, Johnson said corporate estimated tax payments fell by 34.9 percent and 41.3 percent in the two quarters from January through March and April through June respectively.

Johnson said he's concerned that the corporate estimated tax payments may worsen.

"I think we're just starting to enter the period where we're seeing the downturns like other states," he said.

Overall, corporate income taxes were actually up 5.1 percent in fiscal 2009 over the previous year, but Johnson attributed it primarily to enhanced corporate tax audits by the Revenue Department. The agency collected $29.8 million in corporate tax audits in fiscal 2009 compared with $16.9 million the previous year for an increase of more than 76 percent.

The report contained some good news in that oil prices are greater than projected, but oil production in Montana also is declining from its peak of 36.3 million barrels in calendar year 2006.

Looking ahead to this new fiscal year, Johnson said the current trends look "gloomy," but added that a thorough analysis of the underlying economic conditions is imperative.

"The economic recession, housing downturn, commodity prices and consumer sentiment, etc., are all factors that will shape the outlook for future revenue collections," he said. "Without this analysis, erroneous conclusions could easily be assumed that may lead to inappropriate fiscal policy during the next legislative session."