Just one week left in the AA regular season, and we're still a ways off from knowing what the playoff seeding will look like. We know the eight teams that are in, and we know Capital and CMR will be the top two seeds...but after that, good luck. Five teams are tied at 6-3, and I believe every one of them of has a shot at one of the two remaining home-playoff games.

Despite the amount at stake this weekend, there's not really many true toss-up games. Skyview vs. Bozeman can be very good, but after that, the best matchup involving playoff-bound teams is Sentinel vs. Capital, where the Bruins would be heavily-favored even if the Spartans hadn't laid an egg against Helena last week.

With that said, let's see what the number say about those two games, as well as Senior-West game, which I think can be very competitive.

Skyview (6-3) vs. Bozeman (6-3)

I see this as a true pick-em game. Skyview is perhaps playing its best ball right now, coming off impressive wins against Helena and Butte. Bozeman has also won its last two game, defeating Big Sky and coming from behind last week against Great Falls. The winner of this game should lock up a home-playoff game, but that's where the similarites end. Skyview and Bozeman represent opposite ends of the offensive spectrum. The Hawks put pressure on teams by forcing them to keep pace with their powerful offense, while Skyview prefers to hold on to the ball for long periods of time and grind out wins. We can see this in the numbers: Skyview holds a slight edge in PPPa, meaning they do a better job of preventing big plays, while Bozeman has a clear advantage in PPP due to their explosive offense. So who wins? Both teams have a clear goal in terms of game tempo, and I'm guessing the team that can establish that tempo early comes away with the win. I'm not sure Skyview can afford to fall behind my multiple scores againstt Bozeman because the Falcons aren't built to come from behind, but if the Falcons offense holds on to the ball and keeps the Hawks defense on the field for long stretches (and consequently the Hawks offense on the sidelines), momentum can quickly swing in Skyview's direction.

Sentinel (6-3) vs. Capital (9-0)

The numbers reinforce the expecations in this game: Sentinel is very good, but Capital is stronger on both sides of the ball. The Spartans have been up-and-down much of the season and are coming off their worst performance of the season, a 35-6 drubbing against Helena. In that game, Helena posted a PPP score of .56, easily the highest against Sentinel this year. Capital is coming off it's best offensive performance: the Bruins needed just 35 plays to score 47 points against Senior for a PPP score of 1.34. That's easily the highest score by any team this year. However, two new variables should be taken into consideration here: the mindset of the players and the goals of the coaching staff for Capital. The Bruins have already wrapped up the top seed...it's possible they could coast, either by the players looking ahead to the postseason or because the coaching staff decides to rest starters in a meaningless game. I'm confident Capital is the better team, but I'm not so sure they are so much better that it can defeat Sentinel with a sloppy game or with its JV squad. While I doubt Capital would go that route (the Bruins, after all, are riding a 30-game winning streak, and I'm sure they would like to keep that entact), it is something to keep in mind.

Senior (2-7) vs. West (4-5)

West was expected to take a step back this year, but I'm not sure Bears fans expected the team to miss the playoffs. It is the first time in 15 years that West will not participate in the postseason, and looking at the numbers, we can see why. The Bears have been right around the league-average on defense, but for a team that was so explosive on offense the last few years, they've really struggled to create big plays. Of course, the cure for West's big-play blues might be Senior's defense: Broncs PPPa score of .70 is worst in AA. If Senior can tighten up on defense, its offense is pretty comparable to the Golden Bears. And like the Sentine-Capital contest, what the numbers don't measure is the intangibles. West has lost its last three games, while Senior has won two of its previous four. Quality of opponent must be taken into consideration, but you can't underestimate what winning can do for the confidence of a team, and what losing can do to destroy it. West is coming off its worst performance in years, losing at CMR 45-0 in a game where the Golden Bears never even ventured into the Rustlers' end of the field. Because of the intense rivalry between the two teams, nothing would surprise me. I would give West a slight edge on paper, but if Senior gets a score or two early and can build confidence like they showed in the second half against Big Sky earlier this year, Senior could hand West its sixth loss of the season.

If there are any other AA games you'd like previewed, let me know in the comments and I'll get back to you.